Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
