A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
